How to Calculate the Break Even Point for Spreads and Totals
Know what your friend is offering you., Know what Nevada offers you., Examine these two propositions., Do the math., Look at the win percentages of successful professional gamblers., Note what they call big sports bettors - whales., Compare the win...
Step-by-Step Guide
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Step 1: Know what your friend is offering you.
To win $100 you bet $100, but if you lose you owe your friend $120. -
Step 2: Know what Nevada offers you.
To win $100 you bet $110. , In the first case you win even money, but pay 20% more if you lose.
It seems like the 20% is spread over winning and losing and equals just 10%.
In the second case, you have to pay 10% more to win $100.
You might conclude that these two propositions are equal. , With your friend, you have to win
54.545 out on 100 bets to break even.
54.545% X $100 =
45.454% X
120.
With your friend you have to win more than
54.5% of the time to break even.
In Nevada, you have to win
52.38 out of 100 bets to break even on their 110/100 proposition.
52.38% X $100 =
47.62% X $110. , Their number are between 55%
- 60%.
With work or school demands you cannot achieve their win rates.
Do not believe the tipsters with win-rates of 70%.
Take the advice of authors with a background in finance, math (especially statistics) or computer programming and an established reputation.
There are successful sports bettors without that heavy academic bent but they are doing their research and spend long hours at their craft.
Experience is a hard teacher, quantification of thoughts (put a percentage number on Jets should win or Boise State will cover the spread) and doing the math will bring better results for most people. , They bet enormous sums of money because at the end of the season they will have just a small amount of wins over losses.
Conclude that their win percentage is not very high.
In blackjack, your average bet is smaller than your football bets because you make more bets in a weekend than you do in a season. , A
2.1 percent win-rate difference is huge.
Only a hard working and intelligent sports punter can correctly win 55% consistently. , Develop your handicapping to where you can break even (or better) in you hometown and you will demolish the Nevada sports books on your vacations there.
It is statistically baseless, but Lady Luck seems to often hook novices into the fast money of gambling, by smiling on them at the beginning of their sports-betting adventure with a streak of wins in the 70% range.
However, by working hard, and achieving a high win rate, your bankroll fluctuations will be smaller and you will have more of those long, win streaks. , Choosing the right bet is your first decision.
Study handicapping.
Do the math, do not come to conclusions by superficial analysis. -
Step 3: Examine these two propositions.
-
Step 4: Do the math.
-
Step 5: Look at the win percentages of successful professional gamblers.
-
Step 6: Note what they call big sports bettors - whales.
-
Step 7: Compare the win percentage
-
Step 8: to break even in Nevada
-
Step 9: to your hometown friend - 52.4% to 54.5% respectively.
-
Step 10: Make small bets with your hometown friend offering you 6/5 odds and save your big bets for Nevada where you have a good chance of breaking even or winning.
-
Step 11: Review math (adding
-
Step 12: subtracting
-
Step 13: multiplying and dividing fractions)
-
Step 14: probability and algebra and apply this to the other bets like parlays.
Detailed Guide
To win $100 you bet $100, but if you lose you owe your friend $120.
To win $100 you bet $110. , In the first case you win even money, but pay 20% more if you lose.
It seems like the 20% is spread over winning and losing and equals just 10%.
In the second case, you have to pay 10% more to win $100.
You might conclude that these two propositions are equal. , With your friend, you have to win
54.545 out on 100 bets to break even.
54.545% X $100 =
45.454% X
120.
With your friend you have to win more than
54.5% of the time to break even.
In Nevada, you have to win
52.38 out of 100 bets to break even on their 110/100 proposition.
52.38% X $100 =
47.62% X $110. , Their number are between 55%
- 60%.
With work or school demands you cannot achieve their win rates.
Do not believe the tipsters with win-rates of 70%.
Take the advice of authors with a background in finance, math (especially statistics) or computer programming and an established reputation.
There are successful sports bettors without that heavy academic bent but they are doing their research and spend long hours at their craft.
Experience is a hard teacher, quantification of thoughts (put a percentage number on Jets should win or Boise State will cover the spread) and doing the math will bring better results for most people. , They bet enormous sums of money because at the end of the season they will have just a small amount of wins over losses.
Conclude that their win percentage is not very high.
In blackjack, your average bet is smaller than your football bets because you make more bets in a weekend than you do in a season. , A
2.1 percent win-rate difference is huge.
Only a hard working and intelligent sports punter can correctly win 55% consistently. , Develop your handicapping to where you can break even (or better) in you hometown and you will demolish the Nevada sports books on your vacations there.
It is statistically baseless, but Lady Luck seems to often hook novices into the fast money of gambling, by smiling on them at the beginning of their sports-betting adventure with a streak of wins in the 70% range.
However, by working hard, and achieving a high win rate, your bankroll fluctuations will be smaller and you will have more of those long, win streaks. , Choosing the right bet is your first decision.
Study handicapping.
Do the math, do not come to conclusions by superficial analysis.
About the Author
Melissa Turner
Specializes in breaking down complex practical skills topics into simple steps.
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