How to Win Your NCAA Basketball Tournament Pool
Get the lay of the land., Watch college basketball., Know when to use seeding., Get under the boards., Take a shot., Defend yourself., Buck the trends., Leave your loyalties at the door., If you can, pick several different brackets., Trust yourself.
Step-by-Step Guide
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Step 1: Get the lay of the land.
As soon as the tournament teams are announced, read sports sites and blogs to figure out the scuttlebutt on all the promising and not-so-promising teams.
Look for information on programs' late-season injuries, winning and losing streaks, and post-season playing history, which may indicate how a team approaches high-pressure elimination games.
Look for teams ranked really high who have been badly blown out in a loss during the regular season — these teams are statistically unlikely to win it all.
Highly-ranked teams who have suffered a blowout loss of double-digits are statistically less likely to win it all.
Look for teams who score high on basketball analytics.
Sites such as kenpom offer a purely objective look at teams based on different metrics.
Of course, these sites can't measure intangibles, but looking at them can be a good way to figure out which teams may be better, or worse, than they actually appear.
Don’t limit yourself to one particular site.
National news may not have access to local details, while regional information can carry a heavy hometown bias. -
Step 2: Watch college basketball.
The running joke among office pool participants is that the person with the least knowledge of the sport always wins the March Madness pool.
While it can happen- and is extremely frustrating- there’s really no advantage in being ignorant.
A lot of luck goes into the games themselves, but having good background information will give you an edge.
You’ll start to see which players step up in big games, which coaches have proven track records and who can’t win away from their own arena.
This knowledge will come in handy. , Take seeding, or a team's rank, into account, but don't be a slave to it; there are often upsets, most notably in the number five to number 12 match-ups in the first round.
Use your bracket's point system to maximize your gains, as some award more points based on the winning team's initial seeding.
Know the trends.
Entering the 2008 tournament, No. 1 seeds are 92-0 against 16s.
Even if you think that a No. 16 will win this year, the odds say that you're probably wrong.
It's not that you're not brave; it's that it's just not worth taking that sort of risk.
In fact, don’t risk taking any team above the 12 seed in the first round unless you're absolutely sure it's a mismatch.
If you pick a 13, 14, 15, or 16 seed to win in the first round, you’re picking against a team that (based on seeds) should be going to the Sweet 16 as long as they take care of business.
However, also realize that 12 v. 5 and 11 v. 6 games are upset city.
Usually at least one of each will win, so be on the lookout for which ones you think can make it past the first round.
Know that 10 v. 7 games are hardly upsets and 9s actually have a winning record over 8s since the beginning of the 65-team era.
Ignore rank completely starting in the Elite Eight.
One study has shown that the tournament's last three rounds are statistical toss-ups., Pay attention to teams' rebounding statistics, which indicate a team's ability to judge shot quality and capitalize on opponents' mistakes with second-chance points and fast breaks. , Study teams' offensive stats; free throws and three-point shooting can be important factors in closing games and in overcoming deficits quickly, while assists can indicate the ability to create opportunities and adjust to opponents' defensive weaknesses, as well as the capacity to work well as a team. , Focus on teams that can play both a zone and a man-to-man defense, and therefore adapt easily to the variety of teams they might face during the tournament.
Look at teams who can execute a full-court press.
Full-court press is a little more popular in college basketball than it is in the pros, but it can translates to a couple more steals and fast-break points per game. , Try to find out the picks other people in your pool are making and deviate when reasonable; choosing an unpopular team might seem daunting, but if they win, so will you.
Remember: no risk, no reward.
Be conservative about picking first-round upsets.
While gloriously satisfying when they work, they often cause you to eliminate a team that in all probability will go several rounds.
Save your upsets for the second or third rounds.
There's usually one dark horse team that goes completely unnoticed by the national media until they blow through the tournament and upset a No. 1 or No. 2 seed on their way to the Final Four.
Study past dark horse teams, their coaches, their metrics, and make a judgment about their intangibles.
In 2010, the dark horse team was Butler, who entered the tourney as a 5 seed.
In 2011, the dark horse team was VCU, who buzzed into the Final Four as an astonishing 11 seed. , Unless your favorite team or alma mater is a powerhouse, don’t throw away logic to show your allegiance to it.
If you can’t bring yourself to pick against your team, don’t fill out a bracket.
You can root for them to win it all (that would be a much better memory than winning your office pool anyway), but don’t pick them to go all the way if you don’t really believe it’s going to happen. , Fill out several different brackets with slight differences.
That way, the bracket that you lost in a pool of friends will not be the same bracket that you use in a pool of colleagues.
Many people fill out close to a dozen different brackets to increase their chances of winning. , When in doubt, go with your gut.
And most importantly, root from your heart – the tournament is more fun that way! When you win, consider using the money to take everyone out for beers, or some other way to show you are smart enough to be an individual achiever but generous enough to be part of a team. -
Step 3: Know when to use seeding.
-
Step 4: Get under the boards.
-
Step 5: Take a shot.
-
Step 6: Defend yourself.
-
Step 7: Buck the trends.
-
Step 8: Leave your loyalties at the door.
-
Step 9: If you can
-
Step 10: pick several different brackets.
-
Step 11: Trust yourself.
Detailed Guide
As soon as the tournament teams are announced, read sports sites and blogs to figure out the scuttlebutt on all the promising and not-so-promising teams.
Look for information on programs' late-season injuries, winning and losing streaks, and post-season playing history, which may indicate how a team approaches high-pressure elimination games.
Look for teams ranked really high who have been badly blown out in a loss during the regular season — these teams are statistically unlikely to win it all.
Highly-ranked teams who have suffered a blowout loss of double-digits are statistically less likely to win it all.
Look for teams who score high on basketball analytics.
Sites such as kenpom offer a purely objective look at teams based on different metrics.
Of course, these sites can't measure intangibles, but looking at them can be a good way to figure out which teams may be better, or worse, than they actually appear.
Don’t limit yourself to one particular site.
National news may not have access to local details, while regional information can carry a heavy hometown bias.
The running joke among office pool participants is that the person with the least knowledge of the sport always wins the March Madness pool.
While it can happen- and is extremely frustrating- there’s really no advantage in being ignorant.
A lot of luck goes into the games themselves, but having good background information will give you an edge.
You’ll start to see which players step up in big games, which coaches have proven track records and who can’t win away from their own arena.
This knowledge will come in handy. , Take seeding, or a team's rank, into account, but don't be a slave to it; there are often upsets, most notably in the number five to number 12 match-ups in the first round.
Use your bracket's point system to maximize your gains, as some award more points based on the winning team's initial seeding.
Know the trends.
Entering the 2008 tournament, No. 1 seeds are 92-0 against 16s.
Even if you think that a No. 16 will win this year, the odds say that you're probably wrong.
It's not that you're not brave; it's that it's just not worth taking that sort of risk.
In fact, don’t risk taking any team above the 12 seed in the first round unless you're absolutely sure it's a mismatch.
If you pick a 13, 14, 15, or 16 seed to win in the first round, you’re picking against a team that (based on seeds) should be going to the Sweet 16 as long as they take care of business.
However, also realize that 12 v. 5 and 11 v. 6 games are upset city.
Usually at least one of each will win, so be on the lookout for which ones you think can make it past the first round.
Know that 10 v. 7 games are hardly upsets and 9s actually have a winning record over 8s since the beginning of the 65-team era.
Ignore rank completely starting in the Elite Eight.
One study has shown that the tournament's last three rounds are statistical toss-ups., Pay attention to teams' rebounding statistics, which indicate a team's ability to judge shot quality and capitalize on opponents' mistakes with second-chance points and fast breaks. , Study teams' offensive stats; free throws and three-point shooting can be important factors in closing games and in overcoming deficits quickly, while assists can indicate the ability to create opportunities and adjust to opponents' defensive weaknesses, as well as the capacity to work well as a team. , Focus on teams that can play both a zone and a man-to-man defense, and therefore adapt easily to the variety of teams they might face during the tournament.
Look at teams who can execute a full-court press.
Full-court press is a little more popular in college basketball than it is in the pros, but it can translates to a couple more steals and fast-break points per game. , Try to find out the picks other people in your pool are making and deviate when reasonable; choosing an unpopular team might seem daunting, but if they win, so will you.
Remember: no risk, no reward.
Be conservative about picking first-round upsets.
While gloriously satisfying when they work, they often cause you to eliminate a team that in all probability will go several rounds.
Save your upsets for the second or third rounds.
There's usually one dark horse team that goes completely unnoticed by the national media until they blow through the tournament and upset a No. 1 or No. 2 seed on their way to the Final Four.
Study past dark horse teams, their coaches, their metrics, and make a judgment about their intangibles.
In 2010, the dark horse team was Butler, who entered the tourney as a 5 seed.
In 2011, the dark horse team was VCU, who buzzed into the Final Four as an astonishing 11 seed. , Unless your favorite team or alma mater is a powerhouse, don’t throw away logic to show your allegiance to it.
If you can’t bring yourself to pick against your team, don’t fill out a bracket.
You can root for them to win it all (that would be a much better memory than winning your office pool anyway), but don’t pick them to go all the way if you don’t really believe it’s going to happen. , Fill out several different brackets with slight differences.
That way, the bracket that you lost in a pool of friends will not be the same bracket that you use in a pool of colleagues.
Many people fill out close to a dozen different brackets to increase their chances of winning. , When in doubt, go with your gut.
And most importantly, root from your heart – the tournament is more fun that way! When you win, consider using the money to take everyone out for beers, or some other way to show you are smart enough to be an individual achiever but generous enough to be part of a team.
About the Author
Kathryn Sanders
Creates helpful guides on crafts to inspire and educate readers.
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